Positive outlook for 2015
For 2015, UNWTO forecasts international
tourist arrivals to grow between 3% and 4%. By region, growth is
expected to be stronger in Asia and the Pacific (+4% to +5%) and the
Americas (+4% to +5%), followed by Europe (+3% to +4%). Arrivals are
expected to increase by +3% to +5% in Africa and by +2% to +5% in the
Middle East.
“We expect demand to continue growing in
2015 as the global economic situation improves even though there are
still plenty of challenges ahead. On the positive side, oil prices have
declined to a level not seen since 2009. This will lower transport costs
and boost economic growth by lifting purchasing power and private
demand in oil importing economies. Yet, it could also negatively impact
some of the oil exporting countries which have emerged as strong tourism
source markets,” added Mr Rifai.
The positive outlook for 2015 is
confirmed by the UNWTO Confidence Index. According to the 300 tourism
experts consulted worldwide for the Index, tourism performance is
expected to improve in 2015, though expectations are less upbeat than a
year ago.
Europe consolidates its position as the most visited region in the world
Europe (+4%), the most
visited region with over half of the world’s international tourists, saw
an increase of 22 million arrivals in 2014, reaching a total of 588
million. Thanks to these results, tourism has been a major contributor
to the European economic recovery. Northern Europe and Southern and
Mediterranean Europe led growth (both +7%), while results were more
modest in Western Europe (+2%). Arrivals in Central and Eastern Europe
(0%) stagnated after three years of strong growth.
International tourist arrivals in Asia and the Pacific (+5%)
increased by 13 million to 263 million. The best performance was
recorded in North-East Asia and South Asia (both +7%). Arrivals in
Oceania grew by 6%, while growth slowed down in South-East Asia (+2%) as
compared to previous years.
The Americas was the
best performing region in relative terms with growth of 7%, welcoming an
additional 13 million international tourists and raising the total to
181 million. Growth was driven by North America (+8%), where Mexico
posted a double-digit increase, and the Caribbean (+7%). Arrivals to
Central America and South America (both +6%) grew at double the rate
recorded in 2013 and well above the world average.
International tourism in the Middle East (+4%)
shows signs of rebound with good results in most destinations. The
region attracted an additional 2 million arrivals, bringing the total to
50 million. Africa’s international tourist numbers
grew by an estimated 2%, equivalent to an increase of one million
arrivals. The region reached 56 million tourists. While arrivals to
North Africa were weak (+1%), Sub-Saharan Africa saw international
tourist numbers rise by 3% despite the Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in a
few West African countries. Data for Africa and the Middle East should
be read with caution as it is based on limited and volatile data.
Demand from traditional source markets picks up
A pickup in expenditure on international
tourism from traditional source markets compensated for the slowdown of
the large emerging markets, which had been driving tourism growth in
previous years.
The total number of trips abroad from
China is estimated to have increased by 11 million to 109 million in
2014. Expenditure was up by 17% in the first three quarters of 2014, a
strong result but slower than in previous years (40% in 2012 and 26% in
2013, respectively). China is the world’s largest outbound market since
2012 with a total expenditure of US$ 129 billion in 2013.
Among the other two main emerging
markets, the Russian Federation (-6%) clearly lost strength in 2014,
while Brazil still grew by 2%, despite the appreciation of the US dollar
against the Brazilian real and slower economic growth. Beyond the top
ten, some smaller emerging markets saw expenditure grow substantially,
with Saudi Arabia, India, the Philippines and Qatar all reporting
increases of 30% or over.
A pickup in demand from traditional
source markets compensated for the slowdown of the large emerging
markets. Expenditure from the United States, the second largest outbound
market in the world, grew by 6%. Noteworthy is also the rebound of
France (+11%), Italy (+6%) and the United Kingdom (+4%).
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