UNWTO’s long-term outlook and
an assessment of the development of tourism over the two decades from
2010 to 2030 reveals the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% a year.
The growth forecast is due to
social, political, economic, environmental and technological factors
that have shaped tourism in the past, and which are expected to
influence the sector in the future. International tourist arrivals will
increase by 43 million annually, compared with an average increase of 28
million a year since 1995.
At the projected rate of growth, global international tourist arrivals are expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2020 and 1.8 billion by the year 2030. Africa,
Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean
Europe, and the Middle East will grow at double rate registering over
4.4% growth per year while other developed countries will register a
little over 2.2% a year. International tourist arrivals in the emerging
economy destinations are expected to exceed those in advanced economies
before 2020.
In 2030, 57% of international
arrivals will be to developing country destinations significantly
improving from 30% in 1980. The 43% arrival rate in advanced economy
destinations continue to decline from the staggering 70% since 1980. The
strongest growth by region will be seen in Asia and the Pacific, where
arrivals are forecast to increase by 331 million to reach 535 million in
2030. The Middle East and Africa are
also expected to more than double their number of arrivals in this
period, from 61 million to 149 million and from 50 million to 134
million respectively. Europe from 475 million to 744 million and America
from 150 million to 248 million will grow comparatively at a slow rate.
Such faster growths are
enabling the countries to improve their share at the global market. Asia
and the Pacific will increase their global market share to 30% in 2030
while the Middle East to 8%, and Africa to
7%. On the other hand the global economic giants such as Europe will
experience a decline in their market of international tourism share to
41% and America to 14% mostly because of the slower growth of the
comparatively mature destinations in North America, Northern Europe and
Western Europe.
Aspiring to the forecasted
success many African governments emphasize on the need for a tourism
sector which is both eco-friendly and economically viable to generate
sustainable revenue. Although Africa accounts for 15% of the world population,
it receives only about 3% of world tourism. To maximize the continent’s
untapped tourism potential, heads of states are investing in key
infrastructural sectors such as in transport, energy, water and
telecommunications.
Countries such as Ethiopia
are aware of the potential role of tourism as an economic opportunity
and development catalyst, and have drafted strategic plans to develop
the sector. However, the extent to which the actual implementation of
those plans are taken as national priorities vary significantly from
country to country. Seychelles, Tanzania, Gambia, Kenya and South Africa
are also putting significant efforts into advancing travel and tourism
development.
By Eden Sahle
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