Tanzania grabs chance after Kenya terror dent

Game drive in Serengeti,Tanzania.

Kenya’s economy is headed for tough times as tourism, a major source of foreign exchange, faces a poor first half of the year, denting the country’s hopes of a six per cent economic growth target.

Tanzania has however grabbed the chance, marketing itself in its neighbour’s strongholds as a safer destination.

Insiders say figures being compiled by the Kenya Tourist Board (KTB) for 2013 and expected to be released in the coming months “do not look good”.

They say the sector registered a poor performance in the second half of last year compared with the first owing to fears over the general election and rising insecurity. The trend would appear to have spilled over to this year.

The officials are worried that the decline this year might be bigger in percentage terms compared with the 2012 figures if the challenges facing the sector are not addressed soon.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) show the number of tourist arrivals in 2012 declined by 2.3 per cent to 1.23 million from 1.26 million the previous year.

In 2012, the sector raked in $1.11 billion, a two per cent decline from the $1.12 billion the previous year. The officials expect a reduction in earnings for 2013.

That will complicate the government’s efforts to meet its rising recurrent and development expenditure as the national debt rose to Ksh1.95 trillion ($22.5 billion) as at last July.

The International Monetary Fund has advised the government to go slow on borrowing, warning that it will not only destabilise the economy but also weaken the country’s international status as an investment destination.

The taxman is eyeing Ksh920 billion ($10.6 million) in the current financial year (2013/2014) and, as at January, Ksh427.1 billion ($4.9 million), or 53 per cent of the target, was in the bag

Tourism is one of the flagship sectors in the Vision 2030 blueprint which aims to transform Kenya to a middle-income economy in the next 16 years.

But the sector has seen tough times since the Kenyan military took the war on terror to the Al-Shabaab’s doorstep in Somalia. The militants have upped revenge attacks in areas frequented by tourists in Kenya, denting the country’s image as an international tourist destination.

“Attacks in Mombasa will, of course, have an impact on tourism given the coastal region is our tourism hot spot at the moment,” said Muriithi Ndegwa, the KTB managing director, following a gun attack on a church in the coastal city recently. “Although we are not in a position to quantify the cancellations by tourists, industry players have expressed fears of a possible drop in visitors.”

The Likoni attack came days after security officers in Mombasa seized a vehicle laden with explosives capable of bringing down a skyscraper.

The terror attack on Westgate Mall in the capital Nairobi last year, broadcast by international media, portrayed Kenya as an unsafe destination, according to government officials and investors.

Targeted more visitors

The government had targeted higher visitor numbers of about two million this year and a rise in revenue but it now concedes difficulties in achieving the target at it grapples with rising insecurity in tourism attractions, mainly in the Coast and Nairobi.

The protected areas have also recorded a rise in poaching cases, mainly of two of the “Big Five,” elephants and rhinos.

“The insecurity incidents will negatively affect tourism performance as tourists perceive Kenya as an unsafe destination,” said Tourism Cabinet Secretary Phyllis Kandie. “We are carrying out a global campaign to keep the image positive.”

Investors are already calling for a review of the targets so as to present a realistic picture.

“The results this year might be worse than in 2013, even though we cannot say last year was any better,” said Kenya Association of Hotelkeepers and Caterers (KAHC) national chairman, Jaideep Vohra.

International arrivals for the first half of 2013 by air and sea closed at 495,978 compared with 564,261 in the same period in 2012, a 12.1 per cent decline. Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) received 409,130 visitors, a 13.5 per cent decline from 473,231 in 2012, as Mombasa’s Moi International Airport received 86,530 visitors, 4.9 per cent down from 91,030 in 2012.

The only cruise ship last year docked in January with a paltry 318 visitors, compared with 1,057 just a month earlier.

The Kenyan coast commands more than 60 per cent of the tourism sector with over 300 hotels, which have 30,000 beds, but some hotels have begun laying off casual workers and are warning permanent workers they might be next.

A spot check by The EastAfrican established that hotels across the coastal strip are operating at an average occupancy of 20 to 40 per cent, compared with 70 and 80 per cent in the same period last year.

According to Mr Vohra, the sector has lost millions of shillings worth of business at the Coast this year after tourist bookings and international conferences were cancelled due to security concerns. Some of the business was diverted to Tanzania, which is gaining in both beach tourism and safaris.

KAHC says Zanzibar has become Kenya’s main competitor in beach tourism due to its quality beaches and hotels and it is also viewed as safer than Mombasa. Tanzania is also selling itself as a safer safari destination compared with its neighbour.

Kenya Association of Tour Operators (KATO) official Monika Solanki said the doubling of park fees by the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) had scared away potential international tourists into Tanzania.

— By Mathias Ringa, Scola Kamau and Adam Ihucha
SOURCE; The EastAfrican